Agentic AI. Causal inference. Bayesian methods. We do the math that pricing committees, S&OP, and trade-spend leaders have to defend — faster than your last consultancy thought possible.
Strategy decks don't tell you whether to drop the price 4%. Quarterly dashboards don't tell you which retailer drove the variance. A consultancy readout doesn't quantify what a $2M trade investment actually returns. We do that work — and we defend the math.
Six commercial-decision practices. Each one produces real numbers a real operator has to defend in a real meeting. Elasticity coefficients. Forecast intervals. Causal lift estimates. Optimization frontiers. If we can't put a number on it — and stand behind that number — we don't ship it.
Price elasticity forecasting. Promotion lift quantified causally. Competitive monitoring on autopilot.
Modern marketing mix. Causal lift by channel. Synthetic controls in place of fragile last-touch.
Sell-in and sell-out forecasting, wired into planning. Variance monitored. Demand scenarios simulated.
Probabilistic lifetime value. Churn calibrated to retention spend. Segment unit economics.
Forensic accounting of trade investment. Causal lift by program and retailer.
Earlier detection of velocity shifts, distribution gaps, and execution inconsistencies. Signals before the lagging KPI catches them.
Four methodological commitments. Modern commercial decisions don't yield to A/B tests and dashboard math — they require causal inference, hierarchical priors, and the kind of statistical craft most consultancies have stopped doing. The techniques below are what your last vendor will tell you are "too academic" for your use case. They are why our numbers hold up.
Four stages of analytical maturity. Most enterprises sit in Crawl or Walk and tell themselves they're in Run. We meet you where you actually are — not where the last vendor told you you'd be by now — and we do the analytical work appropriate to that stage.
Shared data. Standardized definitions. Reusable components. Yes, even if you've been told you're past this stage. You're not.
Stop building dashboards. Start building decisions. Static narratives become conversational exploration. Manual analysis becomes AI-assisted decision support.
Manual quarterly forecasts are a 2015 sport. Price elasticity, causal modeling, demand scenarios — running continuously, updating themselves.
Where the math becomes the operation. Models running in pricing committees, S&OP cycles, and trade-spend reviews — not slides about them. The line most consultancies refuse to cross. We work with FieldGoal for the system layer.
PhD applied probability. Previously built pricing systems for two F500 retailers.
Ex-FAANG econometrician. Built attribution systems used by F100 advertisers.
Fifteen years operating analytics inside retail. Bridges rigor and action.
Production ML at two unicorn consumer brands. Agentic forecasting at scale.
PhD statistics. Experimental design and causal estimation under interference.
Ex-strategy consulting. Translates analytical output into commercial action.
Methodology, case studies, and the occasional rant. What most consultancies wouldn't publish — the work, the math, and where the industry is wrong. For readers who want the math.
A F500 beverage operator had spent eighteen months and seven figures on a "pricing transformation" that never shipped a single price change. We rebuilt the model in eight weeks. Here's the math, the methodology, and the receipts.
Last-touch attribution is dead. Multi-touch is a lie. Here's what actually works — and the three causal traps most vendors are still selling around.
Every quarter, the same request: "Can we get a dashboard that shows X?" Every quarter, the answer is the same: no, that's the wrong question. Here's what to ask instead.
When you have three years of data and need to forecast the next launch, frequentist methods fail loudly. Here's the case for hierarchical Bayesian models — and how to defend them in a pricing committee.
A CPG client was over-spending trade by 18 points and couldn't tell where. Our forensic took three weeks. The answer was uncomfortable — and immediately actionable.
Sixty-minute working session with a partner. We'll sketch the analytical approach, the math, and the data we'd need. No deck. No phased engagement plan. If we can't help, we'll tell you who can.
Sixty minutes with a partner. Confidential. No deck required.
A partner will reach out within 24 hours. Confidential.